Obligasi Korporasi Lesu di Tengah Kenaikan Suku Bunga The Fed

 Jakarta - Pasar obligasi tanah air dipandang masih lemas karena peningkatan suku bunga referensi Bank Sentra Amerika Serikat (AS) atau The Federasi Reserve (the Fed).  Slot Online Terpercaya



Walau secara tahun ke tahun (year on year/yoy) mulai tumbuh positif, tapi Chief Economist Citi Indonesia, Helmi Arman menjelaskan perkembangannya masih setahap atau bertahap.


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Kita mengetahui jika sepanjang tahun ini seperti pada tahun awalnya, di mana imbal hasil surat bernilai negara (SBN) naik-turun aktif karena terjadi capital outflow dari investor asing. Ini punya pengaruh pada pasar obligasi korporasi Indonesia," katanya dalam pertemuan jurnalis di Jakarta, Kamis (11/8/2022).


Di lain sisi, Helmi menyaksikan keadaan ini sebagai peluang untuk perbankan untuk mengarah credit korporasi (corporation loan) semakin banyak. Karena, saat corporate bond menurun, umumnya credit korporasi perbankan tumbuh bisa lebih cepat.


Yang akan datang, dengan anggapan telah ada kesepakatan seberapa jauh The Fed akan meningkatkan suku bunga, investor asing diprediksi akan balik masuk ke pasar obligasi negara bekembang.


"Jadi meskipun di tahun akhir ini atau awalnya tahun depannya Bank Indonesia (BEI) masih meningkatkan suku bunga, jika sudah diimbangi dengan kembalinya investor asing ke obligasi di negara emerging pasar, mestinga pasar SBN kita tidak begitu naik-turun," tutur ia.


Awalnya, obligasi diprediksikan temui semakin banyak rintangan di tengah-tengah peningkatan suku bunga dan inflasi. Ini dipandang sesuai konsep suku bunga dan harga obligasi kebalikannya.


Hal tersebut dikatakan Senior Portfolio Manajer, Fixed Penghasilan PT Manulife Asset Management Indonesia, Syuhada Arief dalam catatannya diambil Minggu (31/7/2022).


Dia menjelaskan, esensial makro perekonomian Indonesia yang lebih bagus dan siap temui pengetatan peraturan moneter global diharap bisa memberi support untuk gerakan pasar obligasi lokal. Adapun beberapa factor positif yang memberikan dukungan diantaranya:


-Kebijakan pemerintahan untuk jaga beberapa harga barang membuat inflasi tahun 2022 - meskipun bertambah -tetap teratasi.


- Pangkalan investor yang lebih terdiversifikasi - naiknya keterlibatan investor lokal dan pengurangan pemilikan investor asing (sekarang ini prosentase pemilikan asing di bawah 16 %) -berkontribusi pada kestabilan gerakan pasar obligasi lokal.

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